Wed, Dec 28, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 1, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 011 | 19 | 04 | 0 | 135 |
| NSH | 010 | 05 | 110 | 00 | 1 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 7:00NSHJordin TootooAssists: Jonathon Blum, Francis Bouillon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 16:01MINDany HeatleyAssists: Nate Prosser, Mikko Koivu · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Matt Cullen stopped
- 2. NSH Colin Wilson scored
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 5. MIN Pierre-Marc Bouchard stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:55MINNate Prosser: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:41NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:15MINColton Gillies: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:30NSHJordin Tootoo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:18MINJon Disalvatore: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Clutterbuck12:58
xG 1.04–0.21 (83%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Cullen – Disalvatore – Bouchard11:43
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe10:39
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Peters – Staubitz – Gillies7:35
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Scandella15:17
xG 0.89–0.32 (73%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Falk – Prosser16:36
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky15:16
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Wilson10:52
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Smithson – Halischuk – Bourque7:21
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Legwand – Erat – Smith12:23
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist10:46
xG 0.19–0.74 (20%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bouillon – Blum15:22
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Hillen – Ellis12:22
xG 0.33–0.39 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Josi16:34
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).