Thu, Dec 29, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 26 | 18 | 423 |
| PIT | 111 | 08 | 17 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:56PHIKimmo TimonenPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:03PHIJaromir JagrAssists: Scott Hartnell, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:11PHIMatt ReadGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–1
- P3 13:31PITTyler KennedyAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Simon Despres · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:35PHIMax TalbotENAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:49PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 6:13PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:01PITJames Neal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:55PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:56PITZbynek Michalek: Elbowing2 min
- P3 10:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:13PHIWayne Simmonds: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux13:51
xG 0.50–0.10 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Schenn – Zolnierczyk2:36
xG 0.17–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds3:18
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier4:05
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn11:31
xG 0.86–0.21 (80%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Carle – Bourdon11:29
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Coburn – Meszaros2:52
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Cooke – Vitale8:10
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Asham – Adams – Williams3:13
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kennedy – Staal8:01
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal11:45
xG 0.38–0.70 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Despres11:32
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Picard – Lovejoy5:43
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Orpik – Lovejoy10:05
xG 0.04–0.30 (13%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).