Thu, Dec 29, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 211 | 013 | 334 |
| TBL | 18 | 18 | 26 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Pavel Kubina, Steve Downie · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:42MTLMichael CammalleriPPAssists: David Desharnais, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:01MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 12:46MTLErik ColeAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Kaberle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 17:38TBLJT WymanAssists: Teddy Purcell, Matt Gilroy · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 2:32TBLMarc-Andre BergeronAssists: Steve Downie, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 8:37TBLVincent LecavalierGWGAssists: JT Wyman, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:55MTLLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:11TBLBrett Clark: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:28MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:29MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:10TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:28TBLBruno Gervais: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDarche – Nokelainen – Blunden6:44
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Desharnais – Leblanc11:20
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Moen – Plekanec – Kostitsyn10:17
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Cole – Pacioretty – Eller13:12
xG 0.37–0.63 (37%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Emelin2:40
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Emelin11:48
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Gill – Diaz9:09
xG 0.37–0.59 (39%)attempts 9–6goals 1–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Moore – Wyman2:34
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Moore2:36
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Malone – Downie – Stamkos4:53
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Purcell2:19
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Brewer15:39
xG 0.62–0.27 (69%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Kubina – Bergeron2:39
xG 0.07–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Gervais11:30
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).