Thu, Dec 29, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 19 | 112 | 330 |
| MIN | 110 | 39 | 08 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 13:47MINMikko KoivuAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Greg Zanon · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 10:02MINJarod PalmerAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 10:21MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Greg Zanon · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 14:40EDMLadislav SmidAssists: Taylor Hall, Ben Eager · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 15:26MINDany HeatleyGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–4
- P3 6:40EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (21)
- P1 9:22EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:22MINCal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:03MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:03EDMTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:01MINBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:01EDMTheo Peckham: Charging2 min
- P1 18:01MINMatt Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:01EDMBen Eager: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:36MINMikko Koivu: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 6:42EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:17MINMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:17EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:03EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:03MINMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:49EDMColten Teubert: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:49MINCal Clutterbuck: Diving2 min
- P3 5:25MINNiklas Backstrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:25EDMRyan Jones: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:37MINJustin Falk: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00EDMRyan Smyth: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:08
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Belanger – Jones – Gagner8:53
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–2
- Hordichuk – Eager – Lander2:25
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Hemsky12:04
xG 0.52–1.16 (31%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Potter – Petry2:09
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid14:53
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Potter – Teubert10:39
xG 0.72–0.71 (50%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Clutterbuck12:10
xG 1.00–0.46 (69%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Powe8:38
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Palmer10:08
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Zidlicky13:33
xG 0.97–0.27 (79%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Falk – Prosser14:37
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Schultz – Scandella12:32
xG 0.28–0.59 (32%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).