Thu, Dec 29, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 0, Winnipeg Jets 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 013 | 012 | 06 | 00 | 031 |
| WPG | 09 | 08 | 08 | 12 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 1:09WPGEvander KaneGWGAssists: Ron Hainsey, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:29WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:35WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:35WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:35LAKJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:02WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 11:10WPGMark Stuart: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:45LAKJack Johnson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:00LAKWillie Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:45WPGMark Flood: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stapleton won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Richardson – Kopitar11:46
xG 1.00–0.37 (73%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Penner10:50
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Hunter – Fraser – Clifford7:31
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Richards – Lewis – Loktionov9:26
xG 0.47–0.84 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty15:38
xG 1.26–0.86 (59%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Voynov11:47
xG 0.21–0.55 (27%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Greene – Johnson13:29
xG 0.16–0.68 (19%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stapleton – Kane12:16
xG 0.99–0.35 (74%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Glass – Burmistrov10:35
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Fehr – Cormier5:23
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd11:31
xG 0.50–0.89 (36%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Enstrom16:44
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Stuart – Flood12:47
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian14:17
xG 0.69–1.09 (39%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).