Thu, Dec 29, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 15 | 17 | 015 | 227 |
| COL | 211 | 016 | 18 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44COLKevin PorterAssists: Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 12:31PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Taylor Pyatt · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 15:28COLStefan ElliottAssists: TJ Galiardi, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 17:39PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:10COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Shane O'Brien · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:32PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:26COLKevin Porter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:26PHXDaymond Langkow: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:49COLTJ Galiardi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:12COLChuck Kobasew: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:15COLKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:00PHXLauri Korpikoski: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:31COLDaniel Winnik: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:01PHXAndy Miele: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:23COLTJ Galiardi: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:57PHXKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Langkow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTorres – O'Sullivan – O'Reilly9:24
xG 0.99–0.49 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Chipchura – Boedker4:40
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
- Whitney – Langkow – Doan10:08
xG 0.82–0.49 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Pyatt – Boedker – Miele2:16
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Yandle10:24
xG 1.34–0.73 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Ekman-Larsson11:09
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Klesla – Schlemko13:58
xG 0.15–1.38 (10%)attempts 5–23goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKobasew – McClement – Galiardi2:04
xG 0.33–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog7:02
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Winnik – Stastny – Galiardi5:33
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Galiardi2:01
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Elliott8:59
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Johnson9:25
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Quincey – O'Brien2:11
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).