Fri, Dec 30, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 315 | 07 | 010 | 00 | 332 |
| OTT | 015 | 214 | 112 | 18 | 449 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23CGYRene BourqueUnassisted · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 6:25CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 18:49CGYChris ButlerAssists: Anton Babchuk, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 3:34OTTNick FolignoAssists: Sergei Gonchar · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 12:01OTTZack SmithAssists: Brian Lee, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 4:28OTTErik KarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 3:31OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Chris Neil · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:46OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 1:46CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:05OTTNick Foligno: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:37OTTZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:24OTTBrian Lee: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:59CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:46CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min
- P3 16:32CGYJay Bouwmeester: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:32OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:20CGYRene Bourque: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Glencross12:44
xG 1.05–0.55 (65%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
- Comeau – Byron – Horak5:36
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Byron2:14
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman7:16
xG 0.10–0.55 (16%)attempts 1–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Babchuk13:38
xG 0.13–0.56 (18%)attempts 4–18goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Butler17:08
xG 0.79–1.30 (38%)attempts 11–32goals 0–1
- Sarich – Brodie10:33
xG 0.33–0.89 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Condra – Turris11:08
xG 1.39–0.14 (91%)attempts 17–4goals 1–1
- Neil – Konopka – Daugavins8:12
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Smith – Butler7:17
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening13:47
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 25–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen14:05
xG 1.26–0.46 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Kuba – Karlsson16:24
xG 1.04–0.77 (57%)attempts 31–13goals 1–0
- Phillips – Lee10:18
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).