Fri, Dec 30, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 114 | 07 | 228 |
| CHI | 110 | 18 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:49DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Brad Stuart, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 14:32CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–1
- P2 5:25DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Mike Commodore, Jonathan Ericsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:30CHIMarian HossaAssists: Daniel Carcillo, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:52CHIBrent SeabrookGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:11DETTodd Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:11CHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:32DETNicklas Lidstrom: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 17:37CHIJimmy Hayes: Holding2 min
- P1 19:43DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:13DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:08DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:53DETBrad Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:17DETJohan Franzen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Miller – Abdelkader9:07
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen10:51
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler9:23
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Emmerton – Andersson – Nyquist5:14
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall12:48
xG 0.76–0.19 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Commodore – Ericsson10:42
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – White19:49
xG 0.36–0.71 (34%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Carcillo – Toews9:06
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Mayers – Brunette – Hayes4:19
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Sharp – Stalberg – Kane10:01
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Bolland – Bickell – Frolik10:04
xG 0.25–0.56 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook16:19
xG 1.00–0.35 (74%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy17:01
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Keith – Leddy2:30
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).