Sat, Dec 31, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 2, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 08 | 111 | 228 |
| FLA | 011 | 110 | 214 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37MTLTravis MoenAssists: Lars Eller, Tomas Kaberle · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:46FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 3:08FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:19FLATomas FleischmannENGWGAssists: Jason Garrison · Slap, 0.66 xG1–3
- P3 19:30MTLErik ColeAssists: Yannick Weber, David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:59MTLMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:19FLAMatt Bradley: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:44MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P1 19:58FLAJason Garrison: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00FLAErik Gudbranson: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00FLAKrys Barch: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 3:18MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:38FLAEd Jovanovski: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:49MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P2 18:34MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:16MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Cole – Plekanec – Pacioretty12:26
xG 0.11–0.24 (33%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller8:59
xG 0.11–0.27 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Blunden – Desharnais10:41
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Subban2:32
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Kaberle – Diaz4:25
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Emelin – Diaz9:17
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Matthias – Repik8:30
xG 0.51–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg13:35
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Bradley – Barch – Cullen3:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Kennedy – Thomas6:23
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov13:05
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison12:56
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson10:40
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).