Sat, Dec 31, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 010 | 113 | 37 | 430 |
| MIN | 08 | 18 | 114 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:19MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Nick Johnson, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 15:02PHXDaymond LangkowPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 4:15PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 6:16PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 8:12MINMatt CullenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–2
- P3 19:41PHXRay WhitneyENAssists: Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:59MINNate Prosser: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:59MINGreg Zanon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:11MINKyle Brodziak: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:27PHXMichal Rozsival: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Doan – Boedker13:23
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Chipchura2:00
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Korpikoski10:20
xG 0.26–0.18 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Bissonnette – Chipchura7:15
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Schlemko14:34
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Klesla18:13
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson16:00
xG 0.44–0.80 (36%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Johnson7:09
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Bouchard3:21
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Clutterbuck11:52
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Cullen – Johnson – Clutterbuck2:18
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Prosser14:29
xG 0.77–0.29 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Falk2:31
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky14:40
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).