Sat, Dec 31, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 0, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 010 | 011 | 031 |
| DET | 010 | 317 | 04 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:28DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:45DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Drew Miller · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 19:07DETJiri HudlerAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:34STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:11STLIan Cole: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 3:18DETNicklas Lidstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 8:48STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:48DETMike Commodore: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:54STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:36STLJason Arnott: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:05DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:23DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – D'Agostini8:29
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Stewart – Berglund9:38
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Grachev2:43
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron11:17
xG 0.39–1.68 (19%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jackman – Polak10:48
xG 0.44–0.62 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Cole – Shattenkirk14:02
xG 0.69–1.03 (40%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo15:30
xG 0.59–0.96 (38%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler12:03
xG 1.73–0.48 (78%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Cleary – Miller – Abdelkader8:25
xG 0.83–0.16 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen10:31
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Emmerton – Andersson – Nyquist4:52
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White16:44
xG 1.29–0.71 (64%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall9:47
xG 0.90–0.33 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Commodore – Ericsson11:43
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).