Sat, Dec 31, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 010 | 48 | 426 |
| CBJ | 013 | 215 | 09 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:47CBJJohn MooreAssists: Rick Nash, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 19:25CBJSamuel PahlssonAssists: R.J. Umberger, Marc Methot · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 4:23WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 6:48WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Dennis Wideman, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 7:16WSHDennis WidemanGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Roman Hamrlik · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 11:03WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Karl Alzner · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:38WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:38CBJDerek Dorsett: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:54WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:54CBJGrant Clitsome: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:34CBJMarc Methot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:13WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Ovechkin – Brouwer2:17
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Chimera – Laich – Brouwer7:41
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Semin – Backstrom – Johansson2:53
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Knuble – Chimera – Halpern2:19
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wideman18:23
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Wideman – Orlov2:50
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov7:49
xG 0.04–0.20 (15%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Vermette – Letestu9:56
xG 0.70–0.02 (98%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Brassard7:26
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Umberger – Dorsett11:26
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Nash – Carter – Johansen11:19
xG 0.46–0.75 (38%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard14:23
xG 0.82–0.24 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Methot14:39
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Moore16:39
xG 0.36–0.71 (34%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).