Sat, Dec 31, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 212 | 18 | 426 |
| ANA | 09 | 14 | 17 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:35COLMilan HejdukAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 5:49COLKyle QuinceyAssists: Stefan Elliott, Kevin Porter · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 7:05COLChuck KobasewGWGAssists: Jay McClement, Ryan O'Byrne · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–0
- P2 12:26ANALubomir VisnovskyAssists: Bobby Ryan, Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 1:49COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 12:38ANABobby RyanAssists: Saku Koivu, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:54COLErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:54ANALuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:32COLDavid Jones: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:16ANAMatt Beleskey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:21COLDavid Jones: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:19ANALubomir Visnovsky: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKobasew – McClement – Jones9:52
xG 1.01–0.19 (84%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Van Der Gulik – Porter – McLeod5:21
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog14:36
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Winnik – Stastny – Galiardi15:00
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Johnson15:01
xG 1.20–0.24 (84%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- O'Byrne – Hejda14:15
xG 0.78–0.21 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Quincey2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Getzlaf – Perry5:48
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Cogliano4:40
xG 0.08–0.08 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Hagman – Getzlaf8:37
xG 0.10–0.14 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Parros – Pelley – Bonino4:13
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Fowler19:09
xG 0.40–0.83 (33%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Visnovsky – Sbisa14:56
xG 0.26–0.80 (25%)attempts 9–13goals 1–2
- Lydman – Brookbank15:45
xG 0.28–0.86 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).