Mon, Jan 2, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 313 | 16 | 430 |
| CHI | 110 | 19 | 123 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:54CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Daniel Carcillo · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 7:39EDMRyan SmythPPAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 11:00EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Corey Potter · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:39CHIAndrew BrunetteAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Patrick Kane · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 16:23EDMAndy SuttonAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 8:17EDMBen EagerGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Sam Gagner · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 16:11CHIJimmy HayesAssists: Bryan Bickell, Jamal Mayers · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:54CHIDaniel Carcillo: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:27EDMCorey Potter: Holding2 min
- P2 3:11EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:23CHIDaniel Carcillo: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 7:23CHIDaniel Carcillo: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 18:47CHIPatrick Sharp: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:14EDMEric Belanger: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:23EDMRyan Jones: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Kane
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Gagner – Eberle2:21
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Belanger – Eager – Hartikainen2:35
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hall7:07
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Jones – Lander5:41
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Potter9:28
xG 0.62–0.13 (82%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid5:17
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Petry – Peckham7:35
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Hossa – Toews3:50
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sharp – Stalberg – Kane5:39
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hossa – Carcillo – Toews5:53
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Frolik4:18
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson2:21
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Keith – Leddy2:45
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Leddy3:41
xG 0.21–0.11 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).