Mon, Jan 2, 2012·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 07 | 18 | 01 | 1 | 221 |
| LAK | 012 | 19 | 07 | 04 | 0 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:34LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–1
- P3 14:17COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Kyle Quincey · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. LAK Jarret Stoll stopped
- 2. COL Milan Hejduk scored
- 3. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 4. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 5. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:20COLRyan O'Reilly: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 0:27LAKMike Richards: Interference2 min
- P1 14:17COLShane O'Brien: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:06COLTJ Galiardi: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:48LAKKyle Clifford: Kneeing2 min
- P3 17:28COLStefan Elliott: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:28LAKDrew Doughty: Diving2 min
- OT 3:25COLKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Kobasew – McClement – Winnik2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Jones6:17
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Galiardi2:14
xG 0.16–0.25 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:30
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Quincey – Johnson3:03
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Quincey – Elliott14:55
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Johnson12:10
xG 0.49–1.07 (32%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Penner11:09
xG 1.15–0.29 (80%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Kopitar11:59
xG 0.91–0.19 (82%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Loktionov9:06
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hunter – Fraser – Clifford8:29
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Martinez13:18
xG 1.49–0.51 (74%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Doughty16:27
xG 0.94–0.19 (83%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Greene – Johnson14:01
xG 0.85–0.49 (63%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).