Tue, Jan 3, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 5, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 315 | 28 | 08 | 531 |
| DAL | 114 | 27 | 18 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:02DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Ian White · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 17:06DETJiri HudlerAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Valtteri Filppula · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 17:56DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Jamie Benn, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 19:00DETJiri HudlerAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 1:04DALJamie BennAssists: Alex Goligoski, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 3:51DETCory EmmertonAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 7:25DALMichael RyderAssists: Jamie Benn, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P2 11:46DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 14:07DALMichael RyderAssists: Tom Wandell, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
Penalties (1)
- P1 0:15DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler16:30
xG 1.08–0.31 (78%)attempts 18–11goals 3–2
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen13:38
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Cleary – Miller – Abdelkader10:17
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Emmerton – Andersson – Nyquist8:23
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White20:40
xG 1.26–0.50 (72%)attempts 24–15goals 3–2
- Stuart – Ericsson2:17
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall18:38
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Wandell – Benn5:47
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Petersen – Burish – Wandell3:27
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn11:40
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 3–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom11:13
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Benn10:03
xG 0.37–0.05 (89%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann20:48
xG 0.51–0.63 (44%)attempts 20–17goals 2–2
- Pardy – Benn3:32
xG 0.02–0.16 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).