Wed, Jan 4, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 3, Montréal Canadiens 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 19 | 111 | 327 |
| MTL | 212 | 15 | 414 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41WPGTim StapletonAssists: Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
- P1 13:24MTLJosh GorgesAssists: David Desharnais, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 14:07MTLLars EllerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 5:32MTLTomas KaberleAssists: Travis Moen, Lars Eller · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 17:51WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Zach Bogosian, Toby Enstrom · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 2:41MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Travis Moen, Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 3:03MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Erik Cole, Tomas Plekanec · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–5
- P3 3:31MTLLars EllerAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 11:00MTLLars EllerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.41 xG2–7
- P3 13:03WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Ron Hainsey, Nik Antropov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:56WPGAndrew Ladd: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:28WPGJim Slater: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:34MTLJosh Gorges: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:05MTLRaphael Diaz: Interference2 min
- P3 11:00WPGRon Hainsey: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 17:21MTLHal Gill: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:21WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:39MTLMathieu Darche: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:39WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:39WPGMark Stuart: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stapleton won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Fehr – Burmistrov9:05
xG 0.40–0.02 (94%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stapleton – Kane8:43
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 4–8goals 1–2
- Miettinen – Slater – Glass8:38
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd8:47
xG 0.27–0.89 (23%)attempts 10–12goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Jones16:08
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian4:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Enstrom12:50
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 0–3
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Cammalleri – Plekanec10:04
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller10:27
xG 0.75–0.63 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 4–1
- Blunden – Desharnais – Pacioretty2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty9:45
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban14:17
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Kaberle – Emelin4:56
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 2–0
- Emelin – Diaz5:46
xG 0.55–0.59 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).