Thu, Jan 5, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 0, Boston Bruins 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 09 | 06 | 025 |
| BOS | 315 | 419 | 28 | 942 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14BOSTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Benoit Pouliot · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 3:17BOSMilan LucicAssists: Nathan Horton, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 8:49BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 1:19BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Tyler Seguin, Benoit Pouliot · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 2:06BOSChris KellyAssists: Andrew Ference, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–5
- P2 4:15BOSNathan HortonAssists: Milan Lucic, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–6
- P2 14:31BOSNathan HortonAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–7
- P3 5:49BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Tyler Seguin, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–8
- P3 8:43BOSDaniel PailleSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG0–9
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:40CGYTom Kostopoulos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:06CGYOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:57BOSGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:00BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Byron – Horak5:17
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Morrison – Stempniak – Comeau5:30
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ivanans – Byron – Horak5:52
xG 0.02–0.21 (9%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Comeau – Backlund4:53
xG 0.06–0.36 (13%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Babchuk2:56
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sarich – Brodie15:44
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Babchuk – Brodie5:11
xG 0.02–0.15 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Pouliot – Seguin12:20
xG 1.00–0.04 (96%)attempts 14–6goals 3–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic14:09
xG 0.90–0.23 (80%)attempts 20–10goals 3–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Hamill10:48
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille12:04
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – McQuaid16:28
xG 0.93–0.16 (86%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Chara – Boychuk15:38
xG 1.05–0.36 (75%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
- Corvo – Seidenberg18:08
xG 0.80–0.59 (58%)attempts 16–18goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).