Thu, Jan 5, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 2, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 05 | 18 | 00 | 221 |
| NYR | 116 | 08 | 114 | 13 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16FLAMarcel GocAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 17:44NYRAnton StralmanAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 4:24NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 5:00FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Brian Campbell, Mikael Samuelsson · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 3:29NYRMarian GaborikGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:45FLAMike Weaver: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:34NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:47FLAMike Santorelli: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 9:17FLAMikael Samuelsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Kopecky – Santorelli – Matthias2:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bradley – Samuelsson – Goc11:30
xG 0.19–0.43 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Kennedy – Thomas5:23
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Matthias – Repik8:44
xG 0.16–0.45 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jovanovski – Campbell2:08
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson9:32
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
- Weaver – Kulikov16:32
xG 0.20–0.75 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Dubinsky – Callahan16:52
xG 1.51–0.33 (82%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan12:16
xG 0.74–0.39 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Rupp – Mitchell – Prust5:46
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Hagelin10:11
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh17:34
xG 1.60–0.45 (78%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto19:33
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Staal – Bickel12:29
xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).