Thu, Jan 5, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 016 | 19 | 136 |
| OTT | 17 | 18 | 29 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:36OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Colin Greening, Sergei Gonchar · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 17:07OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Condra · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–2
- P3 8:48TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Matt Gilroy · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–2
- P3 16:34OTTZack SmithAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:07OTTDaniel AlfredssonENAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:21OTTZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:00OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:00TBLAdam Hall: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:58OTTKyle Turris: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:02TBLNate Thompson: Clipping2 min
- P3 5:36TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:52OTTColin Greening: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Pyatt – Tyrell3:19
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos3:38
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos12:15
xG 1.00–0.76 (57%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Moore – Wyman4:30
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Gilroy9:56
xG 0.88–0.31 (74%)attempts 17–7goals 1–2
- Kubina – Bergeron2:08
xG 0.46–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Gilroy5:11
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Smith – Butler8:01
xG 0.69–0.35 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening12:29
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Neil – Konopka – Daugavins4:01
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Condra – Turris9:57
xG 0.22–0.64 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carkner – Lee10:03
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen14:50
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 12–20goals 2–0
- Kuba – Karlsson17:54
xG 0.79–1.50 (35%)attempts 17–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).