Thu, Jan 5, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 03 | 321 | 08 | 332 |
| STL | 114 | 09 | 314 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:42STLChris StewartAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 5:12EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Ryan Jones · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 5:27EDMBen EagerAssists: Andy Sutton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 13:54EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 0:20STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, David Backes · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 1:48STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Carlo Colaiacovo · Tip-in, 0.26 xG3–3
- P3 8:59STLMatt D'AgostiniGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:17EDMAles Hemsky: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:32STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:39EDMAnton Lander: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:18STLT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:18EDMShawn Horcoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:01EDMBen Eager: Charging2 min
- P2 3:18STLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min
- P2 8:48STLRoman Polak: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 8:48STLRoman Polak: Slashing5 min
- P2 13:33STLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:22STLDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:17EDMCorey Potter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:52EDMTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:35STLJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:35EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGreen – Hartikainen – Lander5:05
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hall8:09
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Belanger – Eager – Jones8:07
xG 0.12–0.37 (24%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Smyth – Horcoff – Eberle8:06
xG 0.10–0.89 (10%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Petry10:19
xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Smid – Peckham3:06
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Potter – Smid11:59
xG 0.24–0.57 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Stewart – Perron9:13
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Oshie – D'Agostini – Berglund7:28
xG 0.57–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Porter3:17
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Sobotka6:09
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:30
xG 0.86–0.16 (84%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Polak – Fairchild3:16
xG 0.38–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:26
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).