Fri, Jan 6, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 4, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 28 | 16 | 422 |
| CHI | 05 | 012 | 010 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:57COLDavid JonesGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, TJ Galiardi · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:47COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Paul Stastny, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 8:40COLDavid Van Der GulikAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 18:04COLChuck KobasewAssists: Jay McClement, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:35COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P2 14:36CHIDuncan Keith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:44COLShane O'Brien: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:44CHIMarian Hossa: Interference2 min
- P3 8:17CHIDave Bolland: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:17COLTJ Galiardi: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestVan Der Gulik – Porter – McLeod4:49
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Winnik11:00
xG 0.35–0.36 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Jones – Stastny – Galiardi14:07
xG 0.39–0.75 (34%)attempts 8–18goals 2–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog15:10
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Quincey – Elliott14:55
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda18:32
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson14:39
xG 0.56–0.85 (39%)attempts 9–19goals 2–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Frolik – Toews10:17
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Bolland2:33
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Stalberg4:15
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Hossa – Toews – Hayes2:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Leddy10:40
xG 0.67–0.44 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–3
- Keith – Seabrook15:41
xG 0.49–0.29 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Leddy2:40
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).