Fri, Jan 6, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 18 | 15 | 221 |
| ANA | 03 | 19 | 38 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:18ANABobby RyanAssists: Jason Blake, Saku Koivu · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 16:04NYIMatt MartinAssists: Mark Eaton, Michael Grabner · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 6:20NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 9:22ANABobby RyanSHAssists: Corey Perry, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 12:25ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Luca Sbisa · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 17:06ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Niklas Hagman, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 12:09NYIMilan Jurcina: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:40ANASheldon Brookbank: Holding2 min
- P3 7:35ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:38ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:43NYIPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Bailey – Martin8:13
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Rolston – Parenteau – Nielsen10:34
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares15:04
xG 0.54–0.50 (51%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Reasoner – Wallace – Niederreiter4:23
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic19:00
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Staios – Streit10:33
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Eaton – Jurcina9:32
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Blake – Cogliano – Beleskey2:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gordon – Pelley – Beleskey5:06
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Hagman12:58
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Blake – Cogliano – Bonino8:03
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler16:17
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa16:05
xG 0.50–0.51 (50%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Lydman – Brookbank12:17
xG 0.18–0.75 (20%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).