Sat, Jan 7, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 114 | 111 | 03 | 237 |
| PHI | 113 | 09 | 113 | 14 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Jakub Voracek, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P2 11:05OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–1
- P3 6:43OTTBobby ButlerAssists: Erik Karlsson, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 9:12PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Wayne Simmonds · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:54PHIDaniel BrièreGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:30OTTNick Foligno: Holding2 min
- P1 12:19PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:54OTTMatt Carkner: Interference2 min
- P2 9:25PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:58PHIMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:16OTTKyle Turris: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:16PHIDaniel Brière: Interference2 min
- P2 18:36PHIDaniel Brière: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:36OTTKyle Turris: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:05OTTSergei Gonchar: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:56OTTBobby Butler: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:10OTTBobby Butler: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:04OTTKyle Turris: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 8:04PHIMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:04OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Condra – Turris9:37
xG 0.59–0.14 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening9:40
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Konopka – Daugavins – Butler3:09
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith6:15
xG 0.16–0.50 (25%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson14:58
xG 1.43–0.50 (74%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Phillips – Carkner7:50
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen12:31
xG 0.38–0.91 (30%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier5:23
xG 0.42–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – Voracek7:05
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Giroux2:05
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Schenn8:16
xG 0.17–0.53 (24%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Meszaros6:58
xG 0.81–0.46 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Carle – Bourdon7:55
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle4:11
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).