Sat, Jan 7, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 09 | 08 | 126 |
| DAL | 09 | 19 | 316 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:19EDMTaylor HallAssists: Sam Gagner, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 14:39DALJamie BennAssists: Trevor Daley, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 7:03DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Adam Burish, Tom Wandell · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P3 13:39DALMike RibeiroAssists: Loui Eriksson · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:46DALMike RibeiroENAssists: Brenden Morrow, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:04EDMSam Gagner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:10DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:10EDMJosh Green: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:10DALSteve Ott: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 9:02EDMTaylor Hall: Holding2 min
- P3 1:45DALJake Dowell: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Hall13:24
xG 0.67–0.23 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Green – Belanger – Eager2:22
xG 0.03–0.03 (55%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones8:14
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Eager – Gagner – Hall2:00
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeckham – Teubert8:30
xG 0.90–0.60 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Smid – Peckham2:07
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sutton – Petry14:39
xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Eriksson14:11
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Ryder – Ott – Benn9:42
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Burish – Dowell – Wandell5:10
xG 0.19–0.16 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:19
xG 0.32–0.79 (29%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Pardy10:27
xG 0.96–0.18 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Daley – Grossmann15:14
xG 0.55–0.66 (45%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Robidas – Goligoski17:47
xG 0.64–0.81 (44%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).