Sat, Jan 7, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
New York Islanders 1, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 013 | 08 | 132 |
| PHX | 17 | 311 | 17 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41PHXShane DoanAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:00NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:39PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 3:41PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Marc-Antoine Pouliot · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 14:39PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Radim Vrbata, Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 19:59PHXShane DoanAssists: Ray Whitney, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:32PHXMarc-Antoine Pouliot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:02PHXPatrick O'Sullivan: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:03NYIMark Streit: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:17NYIPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:17NYIPA Parenteau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Grabner – Bailey – Martin8:10
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Rolston – Parenteau – Nielsen11:49
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Pandolfo – Wallace – Niederreiter8:45
xG 0.11–0.53 (18%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares15:00
xG 0.32–1.09 (23%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Streit15:27
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
- Eaton – Jurcina13:28
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:19
xG 0.26–0.90 (22%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Doan – Boedker12:10
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Chipchura13:36
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Pouliot – Korpikoski8:36
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Torres – O'Sullivan – O'Reilly6:43
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle13:49
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Klesla – Schlemko8:13
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Yandle3:06
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).