Sat, Jan 7, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Washington Capitals 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 012 | 18 | 110 | 230 |
| SJS | 09 | 214 | 316 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:15SJSJason DemersAssists: Jamie McGinn, Torrey Mitchell · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:37WSHDennis WidemanPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 19:51SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 0:44WSHJoel WardAssists: Dennis Wideman, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 1:00SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 8:51SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Ryane Clowe, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 18:43SJSTorrey MitchellENAssists: Dan Boyle, Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:11SJSBrad Winchester: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 19:11WSHDennis Wideman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:23WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:27SJSBrad Winchester: Charging2 min
- P3 7:27WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:24WSHMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Halpern – Ward8:43
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich2:16
xG 0.10–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Perreault – Beagle5:40
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Brouwer11:22
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Carlson2:19
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Orlov3:25
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Green – Orlov7:08
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski11:06
xG 0.78–0.03 (96%)attempts 22–3goals 1–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn12:57
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Winchester – Desjardins – Wingels6:34
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Clowe – Ferriero – Couture13:06
xG 0.16–0.35 (32%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic21:32
xG 0.89–0.56 (61%)attempts 27–20goals 1–0
- Burns – Demers15:44
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 20–23goals 1–1
- Murray – Braun11:10
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).