Sun, Jan 8, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 316 | 110 | 011 | 437 |
| OTT | 214 | 09 | 415 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Kyle Turris, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 2:32PHIAndrej MeszarosAssists: Max Talbot · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 8:25OTTChris NeilAssists: Nick Foligno, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–2
- P1 15:32PHIMarc-Andre BourdonAssists: Daniel Brière · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
- P1 16:00PHISean CouturierAssists: Matt Read · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 14:08PHIMatt ReadPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–2
- P3 3:11OTTColin GreeningAssists: Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 6:19OTTErik KarlssonUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 18:49OTTFilip KubaGWGAssists: Erik Condra, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 19:15OTTNick FolignoENAssists: Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:16OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:16PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:23OTTMatt Carkner: Interference2 min
- P2 7:16PHIAndreas Lilja: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:14OTTMatt Carkner: Elbowing2 min
- P2 13:00OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:06PHIAndreas Lilja: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Schenn10:09
xG 1.05–0.14 (88%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Read – Couturier9:04
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Brière – Talbot – Voracek9:07
xG 0.16–0.67 (19%)attempts 7–15goals 2–2
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux11:20
xG 0.34–0.92 (27%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Meszaros11:34
xG 0.89–0.22 (80%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Coburn – Meszaros2:06
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Bourdon15:29
xG 0.47–0.85 (35%)attempts 11–22goals 1–3
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – Smith11:56
xG 0.78–0.41 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening13:19
xG 1.13–0.93 (55%)attempts 20–19goals 2–1
- Konopka – Daugavins – Butler3:20
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Condra – Turris14:47
xG 0.35–0.34 (50%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson14:56
xG 2.01–0.71 (74%)attempts 28–19goals 3–0
- Gonchar – Cowen14:36
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 19–10goals 1–2
- Phillips – Carkner9:41
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).