Sun, Jan 8, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 06 | 19 | 13 | 327 |
| CHI | 29 | 011 | 09 | 02 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:35CHIDave BollandPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 4:19CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Michael Frolik, Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 13:29DETValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 15:15DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
- OT 3:08DETPavel DatsyukGWGAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:41DETJonathan Ericsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:26CHIAndrew Brunette: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:16CHIBrent Seabrook: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:36DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:57DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 0:48DETDaniel Cleary: Holding2 min
- P3 7:53DETTomas Holmstrom: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- OT 3:08DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Zetterberg – Filppula7:19
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Hudler – Miller – Abdelkader4:38
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen11:51
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Helm – Emmerton4:43
xG 0.22–0.27 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White15:28
xG 1.30–0.41 (76%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Stuart – Kronwall13:23
xG 0.84–0.55 (61%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Kronwall – White3:21
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Brunette – Hayes5:03
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Bolland – Frolik6:52
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Shaw2:09
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Frolik3:48
xG 0.14–0.22 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Montador10:34
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Keith – Leddy3:30
xG 0.10–0.36 (21%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook16:37
xG 0.33–0.65 (34%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).