Mon, Jan 9, 2012·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Washington Capitals 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 08 | 17 | 222 |
| LAK | 213 | 214 | 18 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Mike Knuble · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:41LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Trent Hunter, Willie Mitchell · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 19:26LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 3:01LAKJack JohnsonGWGAssists: Kyle Clifford, Trent Hunter · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:27LAKJarret StollAssists: Dustin Penner, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–4
- P3 11:04LAKJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–5
- P3 13:42WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 16:35LAKKyle Clifford: Charging2 min
- P1 18:35LAKColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:35WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:58LAKWillie Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:58WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:15WSHAlexander Semin: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 0:34WSHKarl Alzner: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:55LAKAnze Kopitar: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:51LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:51LAKWillie Mitchell: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:51WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 9:51WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Halpern
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Semin – Johansson6:39
xG 0.18–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Brouwer7:51
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Halpern – Ward8:56
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Semin – Ovechkin – Johansson4:11
xG 0.19–0.31 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Orlov9:17
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wideman16:29
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
- Wideman – Orlov3:58
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Richards – Penner12:22
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar14:01
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Hunter – Fraser – Clifford7:08
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Loktionov10:50
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty18:09
xG 1.27–0.39 (76%)attempts 23–11goals 2–1
- Mitchell – Martinez11:43
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Greene – Johnson13:06
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).