Tue, Jan 10, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Detroit Red Wings 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 010 | 16 | 124 |
| NYI | 117 | 34 | 19 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:07NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: PA Parenteau, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:31NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 11:10NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 18:32NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Matt Martin, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 2:36DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Jakub Kindl, Tomas Holmstrom · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 13:57NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Mark Streit, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:34NYIMilan Jurcina: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:59DETBrad Stuart: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:59DETBrad Stuart: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:49NYIAndrew MacDonald: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:08NYITravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:35DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Filppula – Hudler3:51
xG 0.25–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Filppula3:35
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Emmerton2:26
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen3:26
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall5:29
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl5:16
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson7:06
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Bailey – Martin9:53
xG 1.00–0.17 (86%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares12:53
xG 0.77–0.68 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 3–0
- Pandolfo – Wallace – Niederreiter6:59
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Rolston – Parenteau – Nielsen11:46
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic16:05
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Streit – Jurcina13:25
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Staios – Eaton13:39
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).