Tue, Jan 10, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 27 | 26 | 110 | 523 |
| PIT | 09 | 113 | 08 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13OTTChris NeilAssists: Kyle Turris, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 14:03OTTBobby ButlerGWGAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 1:15OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Colin Greening, Chris Phillips · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 5:43OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Colin Greening, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 11:14PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 12:36OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Colin Greening, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:41OTTBrian Lee: Holding2 min
- P2 2:05OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:05PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:17PITArron Asham: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:34PITRichard Park: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:40PITJames Neal: Charging2 min
- P3 14:04PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – Smith10:37
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening9:15
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Condra – Turris11:42
xG 0.12–0.44 (22%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
- Konopka – Daugavins – Butler6:46
xG 0.01–0.37 (3%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Cowen14:58
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
- Phillips – Carkner13:33
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Kuba – Lee13:59
xG 0.34–0.52 (40%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPark – Sullivan – Cooke6:55
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal13:07
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Asham – Adams – Vitale3:43
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kennedy – Tangradi7:14
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Lovejoy4:14
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Lovejoy4:47
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Michalek – Despres2:07
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).