Tue, Jan 10, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 118 | 110 | 237 |
| CAR | 011 | 111 | 014 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:20PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P2 12:37CARJerome SamsonPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 3:23PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Harry Zolnierczyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:20PHIJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:06CARBryan Allen: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:18PHIMarc-Andre Bourdon: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:18CAREric Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:30PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:25CARJiri Tlusty: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:28PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:52CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:18CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Schenn8:05
xG 1.28–0.37 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Brière – Talbot – Voracek8:55
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Zolnierczyk – Read – Couturier5:34
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux13:12
xG 0.43–1.22 (26%)attempts 17–24goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn13:13
xG 1.65–0.42 (80%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Lilja – Meszaros9:12
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:46
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Nodl – Sutter11:44
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – Samson4:10
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – Stewart3:04
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Samson2:34
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Gleason13:35
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk12:01
xG 0.69–0.57 (55%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Gleason – Faulk2:14
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).