Tue, Jan 10, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 07 | 318 | 05 | 0 | 438 |
| MIN | 110 | 111 | 28 | 02 | 2 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Casey Wellman, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:08SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 13:26MINWarren PetersAssists: Justin Falk, David McIntyre · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 7:42MINNick JohnsonAssists: Dany Heatley, Justin Falk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 9:47SJSBenn FerrieroAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Dan Boyle · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 13:40MINMatt CullenAssists: Casey Wellman, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–4
- P3 16:54SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 17:16SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MIN Matt Cullen scored
- 2. SJS Michal Handzus stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 4. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:05SJSJamie McGinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:20MINJared Spurgeon: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P1 15:24MINKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:08SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:39MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39SJSJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:10SJSAndrew Desjardins: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:33MINDavid McIntyre: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski13:08
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Winchester – Desjardins – Wingels4:34
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Clowe – Ferriero – Couture5:49
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McGinn – Ferriero2:27
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Burns3:04
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 2–0
- Boyle – Vlasic14:36
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Murray – Burns6:21
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Clutterbuck – Wellman10:30
xG 1.09–0.68 (62%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Brodziak – McIntyre – Powe9:14
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Heatley – Koivu – Johnson15:04
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Peters – Staubitz – Gillies4:16
xG 0.07–0.13 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Stoner16:45
xG 1.10–0.27 (81%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Falk – Spurgeon14:44
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 16–16goals 3–1
- Schultz – Zidlicky13:13
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).