Tue, Jan 10, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 113 | 110 | 234 |
| CHI | 05 | 213 | 37 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:12CHIDave BollandSHAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 7:54CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: David Savard, Aaron Johnson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 15:29CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 6:32CHIViktor StalbergGWGAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 6:59CHIBen SmithAssists: Bryan Bickell, Sean O'Donnell · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 8:32CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Ryan Johansen, Aaron Johnson · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 18:20CHIViktor StalbergENAssists: Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 10:02CHIJimmy Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:45CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:45CHISteve Montador: Instigator2 min
- P1 13:45CHISteve Montador: Instigator face shield2 min
- P1 13:45CHISteve Montador: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:45CHISteve Montador: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:37CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:37CHIJamal Mayers: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:37CHIJamal Mayers: Instigator2 min
- P2 3:37CHIJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:16CBJRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:27CBJAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:23CBJMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:21CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:21CBJTomas Kubalik: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:55CBJDavid Savard: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:23CHIMarian Hossa: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Kubalik – Johansen7:06
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Prospal – Nash – Brassard10:30
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Umberger – Dorsett7:17
xG 0.28–0.30 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Russell5:29
xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard9:45
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Methot – Moore15:20
xG 0.61–0.62 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
- Tyutin – Nikitin10:58
xG 0.28–0.74 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Bickell – Smith4:12
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Hossa – Bolland – Hayes8:23
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Toews – Kane6:53
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 1–2
- Brunette – Frolik – Shaw6:03
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Montador8:10
xG 0.81–0.34 (71%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson3:24
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook11:31
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).