Wed, Jan 11, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 2, Edmonton Oilers 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 110 | 09 | 12 | 225 |
| EDM | 09 | 06 | 18 | 00 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:35NJDIlya KovalchukSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 8:32EDMAles HemskyPPAssists: Corey Potter, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 1:06NJDZach ParisePPGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:07NJDZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:44NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:38NJDZach Parise: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:20NJDRyan Carter: Interference2 min
- P3 3:07EDMRyan Smyth: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:23NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:24EDMCorey Potter: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique14:03
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Janssen – Zalewski – Tedenby4:46
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Clarkson – Henrique2:06
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Boulton – Clarkson – Carter8:04
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne15:42
xG 1.02–0.58 (64%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Larsson2:03
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Foster10:48
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Hall14:01
xG 0.80–0.05 (94%)attempts 22–5goals 0–0
- Belanger – Lander – Paajarvi10:07
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Eager – Kytnar4:34
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones13:16
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Teubert12:11
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Potter – Peckham15:39
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry18:28
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).