Thu, Jan 12, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 215 | 07 | 07 | 00 | 229 |
| NSH | 07 | 114 | 112 | 12 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09COLRyan O'ReillyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 12:17COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Milan Hejduk · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 11:02NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Matt Halischuk, Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 8:48NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Mike Fisher, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:34NSHDavid LegwandGWGAssists: Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:30COLJay McClement: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:49NSHDavid Legwand: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:58COLCody McLeod: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:17NSHCraig Smith: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:39COLMilan Hejduk: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:54COLTJ Galiardi: Interference2 min
- P2 12:36COLPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P3 13:24COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog13:00
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 13–20goals 2–0
- Van Der Gulik – Yip – McLeod4:17
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Mueller – Galiardi10:46
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Kobasew – McClement – Winnik8:23
xG 0.07–0.74 (8%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Elliott11:43
xG 0.33–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda12:37
xG 0.17–0.45 (28%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Johnson – Wilson14:13
xG 0.77–1.31 (37%)attempts 12–21goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson6:31
xG 0.34–0.08 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Tootoo – Spaling – Bourque9:20
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Halischuk – Smith2:14
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Halischuk – Wilson3:44
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Ellis9:16
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Klein – Josi13:33
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Klein3:06
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).