Fri, Jan 13, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 16 | 113 | 116 | 335 |
| CBJ | 215 | 28 | 09 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49PHXAdrian AucoinAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Boyd Gordon · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:32CBJTomas KubalikAssists: Aaron Johnson, Antoine Vermette · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 7:09CBJRick NashAssists: David Savard, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 1:52CBJRyan RussellAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Derek Dorsett · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 8:48PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Deflected, 0.36 xG2–3
- P2 18:36CBJDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 11:12PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 11:15PHXShane Doan: Holding2 min
- P2 15:50CBJDerek Dorsett: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Langkow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Torres – Chipchura5:56
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Whitney – Langkow – Doan12:49
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Langkow – Doan – Boedker2:47
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Gordon – Korpikoski10:33
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Ekman-Larsson5:06
xG 0.75–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–1goals 2–0
- Yandle – Ekman-Larsson2:38
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Klesla – Yandle6:15
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Nash – Brassard12:22
xG 0.75–0.34 (68%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Russell – Dorsett11:08
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Vermette – Kubalik – Johansen12:11
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Byers – Boll8:45
xG 0.10–0.58 (15%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin18:26
xG 0.76–0.13 (86%)attempts 20–4goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard12:08
xG 0.84–0.54 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 3–2
- Methot – Moore20:07
xG 0.32–1.06 (23%)attempts 11–30goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).