Fri, Jan 13, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 5, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 312 | 18 | 528 |
| EDM | 08 | 015 | 010 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:00ANAJason BlakeGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 1:46ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 10:54ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Luca Sbisa · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 13:36ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sheldon Brookbank · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–0
- P3 17:18ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.18 xG5–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:14ANANiklas Hagman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:32EDMSam Gagner: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:04ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:04EDMSam Gagner: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:55EDMRyan O'Marra: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:15ANAToni Lydman: Interference2 min
- P3 16:08EDMJeff Petry: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestParros – Beleskey – Bonino7:54
xG 0.29–0.15 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:46
xG 0.73–0.61 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Hagman12:09
xG 0.02–0.62 (3%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
- Blake – Cogliano – Palmieri10:15
xG 0.16–1.13 (12%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lydman – Brookbank13:12
xG 0.70–0.94 (43%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler15:51
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa13:36
xG 0.29–1.02 (22%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Hall13:29
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Belanger – Lander – Paajarvi8:48
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Green – Eager – O'Marra8:30
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones10:21
xG 0.64–0.78 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPotter – Peckham12:17
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 13–2goals 0–1
- Sutton – Teubert9:29
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Potter – Petry2:12
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).