Sat, Jan 14, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 2, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 012 | 14 | 223 |
| DAL | 01 | 08 | 113 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25COLDavid JonesAssists: Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 5:26DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Radek Dvorak, Eric Nystrom · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 10:35COLPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P2 2:29COLStefan Elliott: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:45DALStephane Robidas: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:47DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:09COLStefan Elliott: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:22DALSteve Ott: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:42COLDaniel Winnik: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:46DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:46COLRyan O'Byrne: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:45
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Jones – Porter – Stastny11:22
xG 0.32–0.41 (43%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Winnik – Mueller – Galiardi11:01
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – McLeod6:33
xG 0.04–0.39 (8%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Wilson2:54
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Wilson12:23
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Quincey – Johnson3:16
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Eriksson – Wandell10:59
xG 1.31–0.06 (96%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom11:46
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Petersen – Burish – Dowell3:33
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Burish – Dowell – Benn2:22
xG 0.00–0.09 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Goligoski11:04
xG 0.62–0.01 (99%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski3:14
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann13:02
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).