Sat, Jan 14, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 26 | 010 | 225 |
| NYI | 114 | 113 | 213 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:10NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–1
- P2 14:48BUFPatrick KaletaAssists: Mike Weber · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 16:16NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Matt Moulson, Steve Staios · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 16:58BUFDerek RoyAssists: Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 16:57NYIMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: PA Parenteau, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–3
- P3 19:30NYIMichael GrabnerENAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:51BUFPatrick Kaleta: Charging2 min
- P2 7:00BUFRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:55NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:55BUFJoe Finley: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:58NYINino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bailey won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gaustad – Ellis – Kaleta11:34
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Stafford – Gerbe10:07
xG 0.86–1.00 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek10:01
xG 0.14–0.56 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Boyes – Leino – Adam6:20
xG 0.34–1.22 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Myers14:24
xG 0.86–0.50 (63%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Leopold – Weber3:15
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Regehr – Leopold8:15
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – Tavares15:31
xG 1.49–0.56 (73%)attempts 21–13goals 2–0
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner3:18
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Rolston – Parenteau – Nielsen6:19
xG 0.40–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Grabner – Bailey – Martin4:46
xG 0.42–0.11 (80%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic20:21
xG 1.82–0.35 (84%)attempts 26–12goals 0–0
- Streit – Jurcina15:45
xG 1.08–0.61 (64%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Staios – Eaton10:37
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).