Sat, Jan 14, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New Jersey Devils 2, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 09 | 29 | 225 |
| WPG | 16 | 06 | 011 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:31WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 9:45NJDKurtis FosterAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 12:43NJDPatrik EliasGWGAssists: Adam Larsson, Petr Sykora · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:26NJDRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:26NJDRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:26WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:55WPGEric Fehr: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:28NJDMattias Tedenby: Interference2 min
- P3 5:25WPGAlexander Burmistrov: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:24WPGRon Hainsey: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Kovalchuk – Parise15:18
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Sykora – Elias – Clarkson13:30
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Carter – Palmieri – Tedenby5:32
xG 0.03–0.12 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Foster14:29
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Salvador – Larsson15:44
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Fayne18:32
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Ladd11:59
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Little – Kane – Burmistrov3:29
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Slater – Glass8:56
xG 0.13–0.11 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stapleton – Little – Kane2:16
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Enstrom2:07
xG 0.04–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Oduya – Jones2:10
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Jones12:21
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).