Sat, Jan 14, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 14 | 117 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 231 |
| STL | 017 | 211 | 014 | 07 | 1 | 349 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13MINDavid McIntyreAssists: Matt Cullen, Darroll Powe · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 8:04STLDavid PerronAssists: Chris Stewart, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:39STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: David Backes, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:32MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Casey Wellman · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Jamie Langenbrunner stopped
- 2. MIN Matt Cullen stopped
- 3. STL Kevin Shattenkirk scored
- 4. MIN Dany Heatley stopped
- 5. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 6. MIN Devin Setoguchi stopped
Penalties (20)
- P1 0:58STLDavid Backes: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:58STLDavid Backes: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:58STLDavid Backes: Instigator2 min
- P1 0:58STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:58MINJustin Falk: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:41STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:41MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:50MINDarroll Powe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:54STLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:28MINBrad Staubitz: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 9:28MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:28STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:21STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:56MINClayton Stoner: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:56MINClayton Stoner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:25STLT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:33STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:08MINClayton Stoner: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:18MINMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- P3 14:36STLRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Heatley – Setoguchi6:27
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Peters – McIntyre – Powe2:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Heatley – Peters – Setoguchi2:59
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Clutterbuck4:05
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Lundin8:59
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Schultz – Zidlicky9:57
xG 0.21–0.56 (27%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Falk – Spurgeon10:59
xG 0.26–1.04 (20%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOshie – D'Agostini – Berglund3:57
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Reaves3:19
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Stewart – Perron5:09
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Sobotka6:07
xG 0.12–0.38 (25%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk11:51
xG 1.25–0.16 (88%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo12:27
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole9:34
xG 0.49–1.02 (32%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).