Sat, Jan 14, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 015 | 113 | 110 | 238 |
| NSH | 112 | 16 | 27 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:02NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Shea Weber, Mike Fisher · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 10:36NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Gabriel Bourque · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 12:18PHISean CouturierAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 4:30NSHNick SpalingGWGAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Kevin Klein · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 9:55PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Matt Read, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.44 xG2–3
- P3 19:20NSHMike FisherENAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Martin Erat · Snap, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:17PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:26PHIBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:07NSHMartin Erat: Holding2 min
- P2 19:14PHIZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:35NSHColin Wilson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier7:00
xG 0.86–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–2goals 2–0
- Brière – Talbot – Voracek9:20
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read5:06
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux13:42
xG 0.18–0.82 (18%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn12:17
xG 0.90–0.30 (75%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Carle – Bourdon15:02
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson11:20
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:58
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Bourque10:39
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- McGrattan – Halischuk – Mueller5:56
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Josi13:50
xG 1.06–0.26 (81%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Klein3:04
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber19:28
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).