Sun, Jan 15, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 113 | 018 | 144 |
| WSH | 04 | 19 | 111 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:57WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 19:43CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Anthony Stewart · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P3 1:12WSHDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:49WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:26CARJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:37WSHMike Knuble: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:48WSHJay Beagle: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:38WSHTomas Kundratek: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:35CARJay Harrison: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:35WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CARJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBrent – Stewart – Sutter7:05
xG 1.37–0.12 (92%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter15:02
xG 0.78–0.19 (81%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Tlusty11:26
xG 0.18–0.44 (28%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – Skinner8:09
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJoslin – McBain12:05
xG 1.83–0.56 (77%)attempts 24–9goals 0–2
- Allen – Gleason14:42
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk16:34
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Halpern – Ward9:47
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Knuble – Laich – Brouwer10:25
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Johansson15:36
xG 0.10–0.66 (13%)attempts 7–19goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Beagle – Eakin6:41
xG 0.12–1.39 (8%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Carlson16:35
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Kundratek9:36
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wideman4:45
xG 0.16–0.50 (25%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).