Sun, Jan 15, 2012·United Center, Chicago
San Jose Sharks 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 28 | 18 | 324 |
| CHI | 211 | 114 | 115 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:01CHIDave BollandAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Andrew Brunette · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:39CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Jonathan Toews, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 1:42SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 2:08SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 7:06CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane, Viktor Stalberg · Slap, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 2:37CHIAndrew ShawGWGAssists: Marcus Kruger, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–4
- P3 15:03SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:05CHISean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:05SJSBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:56CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:04CHIDave Bolland: Holding2 min
- P3 6:26SJSMichal Handzus: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:53CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Mitchell – McGinn – Wingels6:45
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn3:50
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Clowe – Ferriero – Couture9:08
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski12:35
xG 0.50–0.81 (38%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Demers3:28
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Murray – Burns13:37
xG 0.21–0.94 (19%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
- Braun – Demers11:41
xG 0.24–1.59 (13%)attempts 4–16goals 1–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kruger – Shaw12:09
xG 1.75–0.29 (86%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Stalberg – Toews – Kane17:28
xG 1.95–0.76 (72%)attempts 32–10goals 2–0
- Mayers – Bickell – Frolik5:26
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brunette – Bolland – Hayes8:55
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 7–3goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Montador12:06
xG 1.49–0.34 (81%)attempts 12–5goals 1–2
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy15:32
xG 1.31–0.29 (82%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Keith – Seabrook18:38
xG 1.54–0.56 (73%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).