Mon, Jan 16, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Nashville Predators 3, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 312 | 010 | 010 | 332 |
| NYI | 06 | 019 | 112 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 5:34NSHMatt HalischukGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 11:37NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Martin Erat, Colin Wilson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 16:02NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:01NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:59NSHColin Wilson: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:33NSHGabriel Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:23NSHMike Fisher: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson14:14
xG 1.61–0.30 (84%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn11:06
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Halischuk – Mueller2:28
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 2–0
- Halischuk – Spaling – Mueller2:46
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Weber8:50
xG 0.96–0.45 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Hillen – Ellis8:46
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Ellis3:34
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – Tavares12:45
xG 1.59–0.26 (86%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Rolston – Bailey – Martin10:15
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Wallace – Niederreiter5:47
xG 0.05–0.47 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner13:41
xG 0.29–1.91 (13%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staios – Eaton9:15
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:14
xG 0.47–0.76 (38%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Streit – Jurcina18:00
xG 0.75–1.88 (28%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).