Mon, Jan 16, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 113 | 112 | 010 | 235 |
| OTT | 03 | 08 | 014 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49WPGJim SlaterGWGAssists: Chris Thorburn · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 6:48WPGToby EnstromAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:45OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:45WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:45OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:45OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:45WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:23OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:23WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 8:01OTTErik Condra: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:41WPGJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Ladd12:50
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Miettinen – Fehr – Stapleton9:08
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass10:52
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Little – Kane – Burmistrov11:00
xG 0.07–0.34 (17%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Jones9:18
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Enstrom16:22
xG 0.72–0.55 (57%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Oduya – Flood15:39
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Foligno – Turris2:56
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Condra – Turris6:06
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening9:33
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler2:53
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips4:34
xG 0.56–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson18:47
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Phillips – Carkner7:52
xG 0.07–0.54 (12%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).