Mon, Jan 16, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 16 | 115 | 012 | 02 | 2 | 335 |
| FLA | 012 | 212 | 011 | 05 | 1 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 8:28FLAJason GarrisonAssists: Mike Weaver, Matt Bradley · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 14:40BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.33 xG2–1
- P2 15:54FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Marcel Goc stopped
- 2. BOS Benoit Pouliot stopped
- 3. FLA Dmitry Kulikov stopped
- 4. BOS Tyler Seguin stopped
- 5. FLA Stephen Weiss scored
- 6. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 7. FLA Mikael Samuelsson stopped
- 8. BOS David Krejci scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:43BOSDennis Seidenberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:09BOSDaniel Paille: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:09FLAEd Jovanovski: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:42FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:46FLAShawn Matthias: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:08BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:36BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Hamill – Caron7:49
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic13:43
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille9:05
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Pouliot – Seguin11:40
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk5:56
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Corvo – Ference11:16
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Ference – Boychuk2:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg12:43
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Bradley – Barch – Santorelli8:47
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Madden – Matthias – Repik11:36
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Kopecky – Goc12:52
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison12:19
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson4:45
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson3:58
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).