Mon, Jan 16, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 0, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 07 | 09 | 027 |
| DET | 311 | 28 | 07 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:20DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 18:11DETJohan FranzenAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Todd Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 19:43DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
- P2 4:19DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 4:32DETDarren HelmAssists: Drew Miller, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:33BUFMarc-Andre Gragnani: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:50DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P2 17:49BUFVille Leino: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:32BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:32DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:32DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28BUFMatt Ellis: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:50DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P3 17:20BUFVille Leino: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Pominville – Vanek10:44
xG 0.65–0.39 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Boyes – Ellis – Adam7:10
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe7:42
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Hecht – Stafford – Leino11:46
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Gragnani – Weber8:25
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Gragnani – Brennan2:17
xG 0.01–0.05 (24%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Leopold – Brennan7:04
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen9:07
xG 0.69–0.07 (91%)attempts 11–1goals 3–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler13:30
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton7:45
xG 0.19–0.08 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Cleary – Miller – Helm12:02
xG 0.32–0.45 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Kindl14:21
xG 0.61–0.07 (89%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – White13:57
xG 0.77–0.67 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 3–0
- Stuart – Kronwall15:29
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).